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Several recent indicators for the real estate industry are pointing to a market that is on the mend and entering recovery mode.
Housing experts’ predictions for the new year tend to center around a market stabilizing before entering a gradual, albeit very slow, recovery. However, the tone is more upbeat than it has been in years for the housing market.
Here are a few of the signs that are showing the market moving in a more positive direction:
Home sales: Existing home sales are expected to increase 12 percent this year, following a 2 percent jump last year, Moody’s Analytics predicts. The signs are already showing: In November, pending home sales — a gauge for future home buying — reached its highest level in 19 months, the National Association of REALTORS® reported. (Read more.)
New-home market: Coming off of what could be considered the worst year for new-home building ever recorded, the sector is expected to bounce back this year. New-home sales and starts were already showing a rebound in the last few months of 2011. Moody’s is predicting that single-family housing starts will increase 37 percent this year, and new-home sales will soar 74 percent.
Housing stocks: Investors are starting to get optimistic about the possibility of a rebound too, and are turning to home builder stocks. These equities have recently outperformed the broader stock market and the S&P 1500 homebuilding index has increased 38 percent since mid-October, USA Today reports.
Consumer confidence: With mortgage rates at record lows and housing affordability high, about 71 percent of Americans say now is a good time to purchase a home. Also, more Americans are optimistic that home prices will rise over the next year — about 26 percent say prices will rise in 2012, an increase of 4 percent over the last survey, according to Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage rates should remain low in 2012, especially in the first half of the year, according to the predictions of several industry watchers.
“We may spend the entire year below 5%,” said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com, referring to the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
Rates may even fall to new lows early this year, particularly if the European debt crisis hits a crescendo, McBride added.
Already, rates are sitting at record lows. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.91% for the week ending Jan. 5, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates. That ties the record for the lowest rates have been in the history of the survey. In contrast, the highest average for the mortgage was 18.63%, set during the week ending Oct. 9, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.
In general, the financial troubles in Europe, combined with the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep short-term rates on hold at least through 2013, will keep mortgage rates from rising significantly, McBride said.
Europe’s woes have caused a “flight to quality” among investors, sending their money in the direction of U.S. bonds, which has the effect of lowering mortgage rates. The Fed’s short-term rate policy also reduces long-term rates, since long-term rates “reflect expectations of where short-term rates will be in the future,” he said.
Lately, consumers have been conditioned to expect low rates. Last year, the 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage had its lowest annual average on record at 4.66%, according to Bankrate.
According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year mortgage averaged 4.5% in 2011, with the mortgage posting the lowest weekly rates on record toward the end of the year.
But whereas rates fell in the second half of 2011, they are expected to rise at least somewhat during the second half of 2012, said Frank Nothaft, chief economist of Freddie Mac.
“Operation Twist is scheduled to remain in effect until June,” Nothaft said. And the intent of the Federal Reserve’s Maturity Extension Program, or “Operation Twist,” is to push — and keep — long-term interest rates low, which means rates should stay low for the first half of the year, he said. The Fed plan, announced in September, involves buying long-term securities and selling $400 billion in short-term debt.
But the Fed hasn’t made a commitment on whether it will extend the program beyond the June cutoff, Nothaft said.
Economic outlook
An improving economy could also cause rates to rise.
Rates on a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.2% in the first quarter of 2012, and should average 4.8% by the fourth quarter, according to Freddie Mac’s forecast.
Meanwhile, HSH Associates, a publisher of consumer loan information, predicts conforming, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will remain between 3.85% and 4.85% throughout 2012.
“Things appear to be improving domestically. The economy, employment, the housing market are showing signs of warming,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.
While the troubles of 2011 will certainly carry over into the new year, there is expected to be at least some upward emphasis on mortgage rates “as things start to look a little more rosy,” he said.
But those who aren’t as optimistic about the growth of the economy have different rate forecasts. For example, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Doug Duncan, expects rates will stay relatively flat all year, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising to 4.1% or 4.2% at the most by the fourth quarter.
The low-rate environment means that even people who have been in the process of improving their credit quality for the past five years may have a shot at scoring some of the lowest mortgage rates in history — and they may add sales to the housing market in the process, Duncan said.
Some mortgage market watchers also have a sense that lenders may be more willing to work with borrowers with good but not great credit in the year ahead, as the housing market and economy show some signs of improvement and lenders look to grow their business.
“I don’t see credit becoming appreciably easier. But I think what you will see is more lenders willing to dip their toes into the waters of 700 and 720 credit-score consumers,” McBride said. “You may end up, as a consumer, seeing more lenders at the table for those that have good credit scores and not just those who have great credit scores.”
But despite continued favorable mortgage rates, don’t expect great strides in the housing market just yet.
The economy is still weak and unemployment is still high — two strong headwinds pushing against housing demand, even though affordability is so high, Nothaft said.
“Consumer confidence is still relatively low. And what a low reading for consumer confidence means is that consumers are nervous about their economic well being,” he said. “If you’re feeling ill at ease, you will be reluctant to buy something that costs $200,000 to $300,000 and commit to monthly payments for 30 years.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-to-stay-low-for-most-of-2012-2012-01-05
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The United States will remain the top choice of most global commercial real estate investors in 2012, but the country has lost ground to Brazil which ranked No. 2 this year, according to a survey released Sunday.
While the United States offers the most stable and secure option in commercial real estate, investors said improvement in rent and occupancy growth and the repeal of a 1980 foreign investment tax would have the strongest impact on their investment decisions, according to the 20th annual survey of Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) members.
For about the past year or so, investors in U.S. commercial real estate have focused on gateway cities such as New York, Washington, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles, driving prices up and yields down.
Meanwhile commercial property in Brazil, with its bubbling economy and safer investment environment, has become a hot spot for global investors. Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest city, jumped to the fourth best city for real estate investment dollars in 2012, up from 26th place last year.
The United States is still very desirable and was second behind the UK in attracting cross border investment in 2011, according to Real Capital Analytics preliminary figures.
“The negative is it doesn’t promise a whole lot of capital appreciation because the prime markets are already fully priced,” AFIRE Chief Executive Officer James Fetgatter said. “By no means will Brazil replace the U.S., at least not in the forseeable future. Brazil is considered now a much safer place to invest and a place where you can get capital appreciation and good yield.”
AFIRE’S survey respondents hold more than $874 billion of real estate globally, including $338 billion in the United States.
Sixty 60 percent of respondents said they plan to increase their investment in U.S. real estate in 2012, down from a record 72 percent last year, according to the 20th annual survey.
Some 42.2 percent said they believed the United States in 2012 would offer the best opportunity for the price of their commercial real estate investments to increase, down from 64.7 percent last year’s survey.
The United States lost ground to Brazil, with 18.6 percent saying Brazil’s property market offered the best growth opportunity for their investment dollars. That’s up 14.2 percentage points, moving Brazil up to second place from fourth, and pushing China down to No. 3, according to the AFIRE survey.
Seventy percent of respondents picked one of the three countries as their favorite, while the remaining 30 percent had top choices from 13 other countries on five continents.
Respondents said they would invest more in U.S. commercial property if the fundamentals of rent and occupancy growth were stronger.
Another U.S. barrier respondents cited was the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA). The 1980 act, originally designed to protect farm property from foreign ownership, subjects foreign buyers to both their domestic and U.S. taxes when they sell their investment, unless their home country has a taxation treaty with the United States.
FIRPTA opponents have argued that the act unfairly penalizes foreign investors of real estate. Such double taxation does not apply if they buy U.S. stocks or bonds.
As for the top cities for foreign investment in 2012, New York remained No. 1. London moved up to No. 2 from No. 3, swapping ranks with Washington. Sao Paulo was fourth, and San Francisco moved up to No. 5 from No. 10 last year.
Europe’s sovereign debt problems and looming recession pushed most of the countries there – except for a few such as Switzerland and Poland – off the map for real estate investors. Germany lost about half its support among respondents in terms of stability and price appreciation, according to the survey.
Emerging markets also seem to be getting more popular among potential investors. Respondents identified 25 countries they would consider for investment, up from 18 last year. Brazil topped the list, with China in second place, as each did last year. Turkey moved up to No. 3 from No. 7 last year. India and Vietnam each dropped down one spot, to No. 3 and No. 4 respectively. Appearing for the first time were Colombia, at No. 10, Hungary at No. 12, and Qatar at No. 17.
As for U.S. commercial real estate, respondents said that this year they would most likely invest in apartment buildings, the fourth consecutive year multifamily topped the list. Of all the types of U.S. commercial real estate, the multifamily sector has not only recovered from the post-2007 real estate slump but rents and occupancy are even stronger than before.
Warehouse and distribution centers ranked second, up from No. 5 last year. Office properties were third, up a notch from No. 4. Retail properties – shopping centers and malls – slipped to No. 4 from No. 2. Hotels ranked No. 5, down from No. 3 last year.
The survey was conducted in the fourth quarter by the James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate, Wisconsin School of Business.
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-u-top-2012-property-investment-pick-121209173.html
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New U.S. claims for jobless benefits rose last week but the underlying trend pointed to an improving labor market, while regional factory data showed the economy gaining momentum as the year ended.
The growth picture was brightened by other data on Thursday showing pending sales of previously owned homes jumped to a 1-1/2 year high in November, adding to signs of a tentative recovery in the housing market.
Indications the economy was wrapping up the year on a much firmer footing than had been previously anticipated leaves it better positioned to deal with headwinds from the festering debt crisis in Europe and fiscal tightening at home.
“The data have maintained their stronger tone and that suggests the economy is on an upswing towards the end of 2011, but they are not pointing to robust growth in 2012,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000, the Labor Department said, above economists’ expectations for 375,000.
But the four-week moving average, a better measure of labor market trends, dropped to a 3-1/2 year low.
A separate report showed the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer was little changed at 62.5 this month from 62.6 in November.
Economists had expected this measure of factory activity in the Midwest region, to fall to 61 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing.
“It is possible that supply disruptions within the auto industry had a minor impact on the production component of the survey given the region’s significant exposure to the sector,” said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
“However, today’s data highlight continued growth in manufacturing.”
With new orders still strong; backlog orders, employment and supplier deliveries rising, the ISM-Chicago survey suggested a modest pickup in national factory activity from November.
The Institute for Supply Management will release its December survey of national manufacturing on Tuesday.
Other data showed the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in November, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1, the highest level since April 2010. Economists had expected only a 2 percent rise.
Pending sales lead existing home sales by a month or two.
Recent data on home sales and construction have been fairly upbeat, suggesting an improvement in a sector that has been the economy’s weakest link, but prices continue to trend lower.
The economic data offset concerns about Europe and encouraged investors to buy U.S. stocks. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt rose, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.
LABOR MARKET HEALING
While much of the global economy is slowing and the troubles in Europe are expected to push the region into a mild recession in 2012, activity in the United States has held up relatively well.
Fourth-quarter growth is seen topping a 3 percent annual pace, rising from the July-September period’s 1.8 percent rate.
“Unless things take a turn for the worse and we were to have a disorderly outcome in Europe, we wouldn’t expect there to be a big impact on the U.S. given that U.S. exports to Europe are quite small as a share of the economy,” said RDQ Economics’ DeQuadros.
The euro zone crisis has seen banks tighten lending to major financial participants in recent months.
While the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior credit officers did not mention Europe directly, it indicated a “broad but moderate tightening of credit terms applicable to important classes of counterparties over the past three months.
In the claims report, the improving labor market tone was captured by the four-week average, which held below the 400,000 mark usually associated with improving labor market conditions for seven straight weeks.
That left some economists anticipating nonfarm employment to increase by at least 150,000 in December, which would be a step-up from November’s 120,000 gain.
The better tone should feed into consumer spending, which slowed significantly in November, and support economic growth.
Firming employment, marked by a drop in the jobless rate to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent in November, is helping to buoy consumer confidence.
“The jobs market is the backbone for consumers … continued progress in the months ahead will be key to sustained improvement in the collective mood of consumers,” said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.
Weak income growth is restraining consumer spending and households are meeting some of their pent-up demand by reducing savings.
(Editing by Neil Stempleman)
http://news.yahoo.com/jobless-claims-rose-last-week-133708738.html
It’s what we have been forecasting all along….I actually have a pent up demand of buyers looking for great homes in the Basking Ridge/Somerset Hills area….Proper pricing and staging are crucial in yielding you the best return…It’s been a great time to buy and now it’s a great time to sell too!
WASHINGTON (AP) — The economy is ending 2011 on a roll.
The job market is healthier. Americans are spending lustily on holiday gifts. A long-awaited turnaround for the depressed housing industry may be under way. Gas is cheaper. Factories are busier. Stocks are higher.
Not bad for an economy faced with a debt crisis in Europe and, as recently as last summer, scattered predictions of a second recession at home. Instead, the economy has grown faster each quarter this year, and the last three months should be the best.
“Things are looking up,” says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
When The Associated Press surveyed 43 economists in August, they pegged the likelihood of another recession at roughly one in four. The Dow Jones industrial average was lurching up or down by 400 points or more some days.
There was plenty of reason for gloom. A political standoff over the federal borrowing limit brought the United States to the brink of default and cost the nation its top-drawer credit rating.
Most analysts now rule out another recession. They think the economy will grow at an annual rate of more than 3 percent from October through December, the fastest pace since a 3.8 percent performance in the spring of last year.
Many economists still worry that the year-end surge isn’t sustainable, in part because the average worker’s pay is barely rising. And Europe may already be sliding into a recession that will infect the United States.
The outlook could darken further if Congress can’t break the impasse blocking an extension of a Social Security tax cut for 160 million Americans and emergency unemployment benefits.
Yet for now, the economy is on an upswing that few had predicted:
— JOBS: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits came in at 366,000 last week, down from a peak of 659,000 in March 2009. Even in good economic times, the figure would be between 280,000 and 350,000.
Employers have added at least 100,000 jobs five months in a row, the longest streak since 2006. And the unemployment rate fell from 9 percent in October to 8.6 percent last month, the lowest since March 2009.
Small businesses are hiring again, too, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
Business is up at AG Salesworks in Norwood, Mass., which helps technology companies like Motorola find new customers. The firm has hired 26 workers to restore its staff to 56, erasing the job cuts from the recession. CEO Paul Alves plans to add an employee or two a month as long as growth continues.
“I do see more confidence than I saw 12 months ago,” Alves says. “But it’s good, not great. Robust isn’t the word I’d use.”
— SPENDING: The holiday shopping season has turned out better than anyone expected. Sales from November through Saturday were up 2.5 percent from last year. Americans have spent $32 billion online, 15 percent more than a year ago. Retails sales were up in November for the sixth month in a row. People are spending, in particular, on clothes, cars, electronics and furniture.
— CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: Americans felt better about the economy in November than they had since July, according to the Conference Board, a business group that tracks the mood of consumers.
The board’s consumer confidence index climbed 15 points to 56 in November, the biggest one-month jump since April 2003. During the Great Recession, the index fell as low as 25.
“It seems like the confidence of the traditional American consumer is higher right now,” says Jim Newman, executive vice president of operations at the digital marketing company Acquity Group, which has added 100 jobs since summer.
— GAS: Falling prices at the pump have freed more money for consumers to spend on appliances, furniture, vacations and other things that help drive the economy. The national average for regular unleaded has sunk to $3.21 a gallon since peaking at $3.98 in May, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge.
— INVENTORIES: Businesses are restocking shelves and warehouses, more confident that customers will buy their products. In October, their inventories were up 8.7 percent from a year earlier. An increase in inventories is expected to account for perhaps a third of growth this quarter.
The battered housing market might be showing signs of recovery. Home construction rose more than 9 percent in November from October, driven by apartment building. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales of previously occupied homes rose 4 percent in November.
But housing is climbing out of a deep hole: The existing homes sold at an annual rate of 4.4 million — well below the 6 million that would signal a healthy housing market. And the real-estate agents’ trade group revealed Wednesday that it overstated sales by 3.5 million during and after the Great Recession.
Once they peer into 2012, economists turn cautious. Bernard Baumohl, chief economist with the Economic Outlook Group, says that stronger consumer spending “is absolutely unsustainable. …. Wages have not kept pace with inflation all year.”
The government says that once you adjust for inflation, weekly earnings dropped 1.8 percent from November 2010 to last month. Consumers have used savings or credit cards to finance their purchases. Once bills come due in early 2012, Baumohl foresees a cutback in spending.
Baumohl is so pessimistic that he expects the economy to shrink at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of 2012 and to end the year with no more than 1.8 percent growth.
Europe is almost sure to slide into recession, even if its policymakers find a solution to the continent’s debt crisis. In the worst case, a chaotic breakup of the euro currency could ignite a worldwide financial panic.
Joe Echevarria, CEO of the accounting and consulting firm Deloitte LLP, says his company’s clients are delaying hiring or expansion decisions to see if Europe’s crisis will be resolved.
Another worry — again — is Washington. President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress still had not broken their impasse Wednesday on how to extend a Social Security tax cut. Without an extension, taxes will go up $1,000 in 2012 for someone making $50,000. A couple making $100,000 each would pay $4,000 more.
Failing to extend the tax cut, combined with the end of long-term unemployment benefits and other federal budget cuts, could shave 1.7 percentage points from growth in 2012, warns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Forecasters are also chastened by the past two years. Since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has stalled twice just when it appeared to be gaining momentum.
In mid-2010, businesses slowed spending sharply. This year, the damage came from protests in the Middle East that drove oil prices higher at the start of the year, the earthquake in Japan in March, budget cuts by state and local governments and the stalemate in Washington.
But Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors says he thinks the fears about next year are overblown and the economy will grow 3 percent in 2012. Next year will be all about jobs. If job growth keeps accelerating, the economy is much more likely to meet Naroff’s predictions than the pessimists’.
In addition, Naroff says, that’s because consumers and businesses have grown more confident. If Europe averts disaster — a crackup of the eurozone — and endures only a mild recession, as Naroff expects, the impact on the United States will be minimal, he says.
“If you stopped the average person on the street and asked, ‘Are you slowing your spending because of what’s happening in Europe?’ they’d ask, ‘What planet are you from?’”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-ends-tough-2011-surprising-192611459.html
