I like good news as much as anybody; but, as a real estate agent, I know that what appears to be good news can often mislead people who have to make decisions about selling their property. This particularly happens when it is reported that the median price has gone up. Everyone with a house to sell takes that to mean that their property is worth more than it was during the last reporting period. And if the median has been going up steadily for the past few months? Who knows? It may be boom times again! Frequently, however, such thinking is mistaken. Statistics that cite the median for the market in general – even if narrowed to a particular region – don’t necessarily hold true for any particular price range within that market.

Let us recall what the median is. It is the midpoint. It is not the average. (I am not saying that the average is a better measure.) Consider a simple example: Suppose there have been widget sales at $100, $400, $600, $800, and $1,000. The median is $600. The average is $580. If the top sale were $3,000 rather than $1,000, the median would still be $600, whereas the average would now be $980. I do not argue for which is the better measuring stick; I just want to note the difference.

So what should we make of the news that the median price has been rising? Does it mean that “prices are going up”? Or what?

Many observers have noted that the rise in the median does not necessarily indicate a rise in prices in general. Rather, it is reflective of more activity at higher price ranges than had been experienced in the recent past. In many market areas, for the past year to year and-a-half the greatest activity – practically frenzy in some areas – has been at the bottom of the price ranges. This is not a surprise. Smaller condominiums and starter homes were generally what constituted the first wave of foreclosures on loans that never should have happened. More recently, though, the number of sales has increased in higher price ranges. As the effects of high unemployment and a staggering economy spread throughout the land, there are more sales – many of them distressed sales – of larger homes, ones that people expected to live in a long time.

While the increased sales of larger homes explains the rise in the median, it does not mean that those homes have rising values. Indeed, even as the median goes up, it is quite plausible that the value of those homes is declining.

Sellers need to know that they can’t infer very much about the value of their particular home from data about the market in general. They need to be informed about what is going on in their particular segment of the market. Providing that information in a clear and meaningful manner is the job of their agent. It’s not an easy one.

We have seen many marketplaces shift nationally in recent years. The skill of price value counseling from your realtor is a more essential tool than others in the last five years.

The fundamental mistake that most Agents are guilty of is using the wrong terminology. The buzzword most Agents use is price or price of the home. This word is incorrect because it’s not about price; it’s about value. The first step in effective price value discussion is beginning to use the word value instead of price. We need to focus the client on what the value of the home is today, in today’s marketplace and market conditions.

When we look at price and the influence of price, it’s really fundamentally connected to marketing. The raising or lowering of the price of something creates a layer or smaller pool of potential purchasers, based on how the potential purchasers perceive the value. We all make our buying decisions based on value. Our job as Champion Agents is to position the property relatively close to the value to widen the pool of prospective purchasers. Price is clearly a function of marketing, not value.

As an example, a ten-year-old BMW 7 Series car has a certain value. You can price it at $100,000, but the real value of the car is substantially less than that. In fact, the Kelly Blue Book value is right around $15,000. What are the odds (pricing this car at $100,000; $50,000; or even $25,000) that you would receive even close to those figures? As they say in Texas, slim to none, and slim just left town.

To demonstrate our value and why we should be hired, we need to separate price from a value discussion. We must secure agreement on the value of the property before we proceed to a strategic marketing or price discussion. In the end, the value of the home is what we are trying to reflect through our CMA.

Too many Agents still believe that price and value are interchangeable, but they are not. Value relates to what something is really worth; what one could expect to receive in money in the free market. It doesn’t matter what the value was last year, last month, or even last week. Value is determined by the conditions and influences of the marketplace today. Too often, sellers get hung up on that fact when the marketplace shifts against them so to speak. They don’t want to view the reality that their home was worth $750,000 a year ago and today, based on supply and demand, is only worth $680,000. Value is extended by the scarcity of something and the ease of replacement with similar, equal, or better products or service. In essence, this all reconnects with the law of supply and demand; real estate is a commodity and not a product.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite signs that the real estate market might be lurching forward, prices are expected to fall further this year and next.

The average home price in the United States will fall by about 6% by September 2011, according to a joint report between Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com. And that’s after plunging more than 27% in the past three years.

Most of the projected home price decline will occur during the usually slow summer months of 2010. After that, prices should begin to stabilize, according to Fiserv, and stay almost flat through fall of 2011.

The main reason for continued decline, according to Mark Zandi, economist and co-founder of Economy.com, is foreclosures — the same thing that’s plagued markets for the past three years.

“Foreclosure sales will pick up this spring as mortgage servicers figure out who can qualify for a modification and who can’t,” said Zandi.

He figures there are at least 4.5 million mortgage loans either in foreclosure or clearly headed in that direction. When that additional inventory hits the market, it will provide numerous choices for buyers and encourage sellers to drop their listing prices.

The end of two federal programs, which have been propping up markets, will also tamp down prices.

The Federal Reserve has been purchasing mortgage-backed securities since early 2009, scooping up as much as $1.25 trillion worth. That has dampened rate increases by providing a ready market for the securities. But the Fed’s program lapses on March 31, when it cedes the playing field to private investors, who will almost surely demand higher rates.

Any resulting rise in rates will cause some buyers to withdraw from the market and others to look for lower priced homes. Either way, demand for homes drops and so do prices.

A month after the Fed bows out of the mortgage-buying market, the homebuyer tax credit will start to expire. To qualify for the $8,000 credit, homebuyers must sign a contract before April 30 and close by June 30. When the first date passes, many buyers are expected to vacate the market, weakening the demand for homes.

In a broader sense, home prices are ultimately decided by employment. “If [the job market] improvement is stronger than expected, prices will get better. If it’s weaker than expected, prices will be worse,” Zandi said.

http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/duck-watch-out-for-falling-home-prices

Not all Real estate agents are created equal. Not only because some people have that go-getter personality, the kind that makes us think creatively to accomplish a goal and save a deal while others simply lack those over-achieveing traits, but because not every real estate agent has taken the time to educate themselves to be better sales people, better deal makers and the best at what they do.

Here, you will find a few ways to help you distinguish between the good, the bad and the ugly before hiring a real estate professional:

1. First off, you should know that not every real estate agent is a Realtor. A real estate agent has a state license that allows them to sell real property in that state. In New Jersey, the class lasts 75 hours, typically taken over the course of several weeks and is followed by a school and then state exam. A Realtor however, is a member of the National Association of Realtors and someone who must abide by a strong set of ethical standards.

http://www.realtor.org/mempolweb.nsf/pages/code

2. A good Realtor should be someone who thinks real estate is a serious business and treats it as a full-time profession. Ask them questions about their track record. How many homes they have listed, how many they have sold, etc.

3. Ask what kind of continued education they have,what designations they hold and what they specialize in.

4. Some Realtors specialize in commercial properties, while others in residential. The Realtor you hire should have experience in selling and buying the type of property you’ll be buying/selling.

5. Hire someone who specializes in your geographical area and knows the various subdivisions, the prices, the bargains, the nice streets, the best values, etc.

6. A Realtor who has been in the industry for a while should have established sound working realtionships with people in related fields, such as mortgage brokers, property inspectors, etc. and can recommend them to you.

7. A professional Realtor keeps abreast of current market conditions and can advise you accordingly.

8. A good Realtor should treat every transaction with skill, care and diligence. Ask for references. You ask for references before hiring a plumber, so why not before hiring the person who will help you sell your most valuable asset? make sure you call a couple of past clients to find out how the Realtor performed and whether they were happy and satisfied with their services. Ask them also if they would hire them again.

9. You should feel comfortable working with the person you are hiring, so make sure you both take the time to meet the Realtor and ask questions.

10. A Realtor should feel comfortable explaining to you the purchasing and/or selling process. Ask if they have a written guide for home buyers/sellers or any other tool you might find useful in the home buying-selling process.

11. A Realtor is someone who can answer all of your questions honestly or help you find the answer if he/she doesn’t know it.

Just a few years ago you could count on getting the bulk of your money back for almost any home-improvement project you took on. Today merely replacing a toilet seat can feel like throwing caution, and cash, to the wind. According to a study from Remodeling magazine, the average return on value for an upgrade declined from 87% in 2005 to 64% in 2009. But these six new rules will help you maximize your return on your remodeling investment.

Rule No. 1: Repairs get the biggest returns

The smartest money now goes into “undeferring” needed maintenance. That’s because while buyers might appreciate enhancements like Jacuzzis and Sub-Zeros, they won’t tolerate a house with a leaky roof or antiquated plumbing. “If a property is known to have issues, today’s buyers won’t even look at it,” says Austin real estate appraiser Jim Amorin.

And trying to keep problems a secret can cost you big-time. If buyers discover them during inspection, it’s now common practice to ask sellers not only to pick up the tab for the repair but also to pay a penalty to compensate the buyer for the inconvenience of having work done.

So the $20,000 you saved by putting off a roof repair, say, could turn into a $30,000 credit to the buyers at closing, says Amorin.

Rule No. 2: Remodeling beats adding on

McMansions have gone the way of the SUV — and large additions don’t pay off either. “There’s been a fundamental shift toward quality over quantity,” says Warwick, R.I., real estate agent Ron Phipps.

Having a big, formal living room plus an everyday family room is less desirable than having one multi-use common space. So rather than adding on, you’re better off repurposing existing square footage by reconfiguring the floor plan or capturing unused basement or attic space.

Want an eat-in kitchen? Knock down the wall between the kitchen and dining room ($2,000 to $8,000, depending on whether it’s load-bearing or contains plumbing). That will instantly create a large eat-in kitchen and give the whole house a more open feel — without a huge investment to make up at resale.

Rule No. 3: Eco-friendly upgrades can save cash

Some green improvements pay you back long before you sell your house. Install energy-efficient features, such as EnergyStar appliances and extra wall insulation, and you’ll see lower energy bills every month.

Add in the federal tax credit of up to $1,500 that lasts through 2010, plus many local rebates and tax incentives (see dsireusa.org), and the work may pay for itself in just five years. Green features are also increasingly a selling point, says Phipps. “Most people in the market right now are first-time homebuyers in their thirties, and they’ve been raised to care about carbon footprints and being ecofriendly,” he says.

The best way to go green is with a while-you’re-at-it job: When it’s time to replace your furnace, for example, upgrading to super-efficiency might add only $500 (after tax credits), compared with standard new equipment, but it will save you — and your buyers someday — $150 or more in annual heating costs.

Rule No. 4: Tech infrastructure trumps cool gadgets

Home electronics seem like a deal, since prices have fallen about 50% over the past three years and continue to drop, according to Stephen Baker, president of industry analysis at NPD Group, a market research firm.

Still, that doesn’t change the fundamental problem with expensive built-in technology: Put in a $10,000-plus dedicated home theater today, and something better will come along tomorrow and make your system look as if it’s from the Mesozoic Era. With buyers seeking any excuse to low-ball their offers, they’re not going to reward you for an out-of-date system.

Tech infrastructure is different, however. Anytime you’re opening up walls for a construction project, have cabling and Ethernet ports installed. At about $80 a room, it’s a low-cost way to provide the capability for whatever technologies come along.

Rule No. 5: Let the Joneses be your guide

During the boom, you could be the first on your block to have a luxury kitchen, spa bathroom, or in-ground pool and count on others following suit. And even if the neighbors never took your lead, there was plenty of equity growth to cover your costs.

Nowadays that fudge factor is gone. “You really have to keep your house’s amenities in line with the neighborhood now,” says Kermit Baker, director of the remodeling futures program at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

If other houses on the block have real marble countertops, by all means add one to your house, but if everyone still has faux blue-marble Formica from the ’70s, you’re not getting your money back.

Also, keep your projects design-neutral so they’ll appeal to the greatest number of people. Choose neutral colors and traditional electrical and plumbing fixtures unless your house has a modern architectural style.

Rule No. 6: The new payback time is five years

As with any volatile investment, the longer your time frame, the lower the risk. Don’t take on a big project if you’re likely to move in less than three to five years. There’s just too much chance that any money you put in — aside from necessary repairs or superficial cosmetic work — could be lost while the housing market continues to meander.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-ways-to-ensure-a-remodeling-hmoney-786716627.html?x=0&.v=1

With the extension and expansion of the popular first-time home buyer tax credit, which President Obama signed into law in November, as well as price declines and attractive mortgage rates, an influx of qualified first-time buyers are rushing to take advantage of the market. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, projects there will be 1.84 million home sales to first-time home buyers in 2010, compared with 1.73 million in 2009. If you’re a property virgin about to take the plunge, here are some common blunders to avoid–and helpful tips that could mean the difference between financial security and a mountain of debt

1. Not checking your credit report and score

You’ve clicked through hundreds of online listings, compared floor plans and square footage, and are eager to jump-start your search. But before you even think of setting foot in an open house, make sure you get a copy of your credit report. The cleaner your credit report and the higher your credit score, the more likely you are to be preapproved for a mortgage at a low interest rate. According to Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com, most home buyers will need a credit score of about 720 to obtain the most favorable mortgage rates.

Review your credit report a few months before you begin your house hunt, and you’ll have time to ensure the facts are correct and dispute mistakes before a mortgage lender checks your credit. You can access a free copy of your credit report at annualcreditreport.com once every 12 months.

2. Not getting preapproved

After you’ve assessed your credit report, it’s time to establish with a qualified lender how much you can afford. “First-time home buyers need to take the time to get an approval from their lender before looking at homes,” advises Ray Boss Jr., a six-year licensed Realtor with RE/MAX Realty Group in Maryland. “This includes getting a credit check and giving their lender a copy of W-2s, pay stubs, and bank and brokerage statements.” Getting preapproved can help you save time by looking for homes that you know you can afford instead of lusting after something out of your price range. And it will put you in a better position over another bidder with no preapproval.

3. Not creating a long-term budget

If the housing crisis proved anything, it’s that mortgages were given to people who clearly did not have the means to pay them back. To avoid making this mistake, home buyers should create a budget before even beginning their home search to determine just how much house they can really afford. A good rule of thumb is to devote no more than a third of your monthly household income to housing costs, which include mortgage principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. “A good number would be 30 percent,” Zandi says. “If you are over 35 percent, you are really pushing the envelope.” There are several work sheets available online to help you figure out how your income, debts, and expenses affect what you can afford each month for the next 15 or 30 years.

4. Forgetting about the hidden costs

You grossly underestimated what you can afford to pay each month. You factored in the purchase price of the home but didn’t consider the cost of taxes, insurance, utilities, and fees. There are several hidden costs that first-time home buyers neglect to prepare for. They can be anything from the closing costs to appraisal fees, escrow fees, homeowner’s insurance fees, property taxes, and even moving costs. Another factor is the cost of repairs and maintenance. “When you’re renting and the furnace goes out, what do you do? You call the landlord,” says Tom Vanderwell, mortgage officer for Fifth Third Bank in Michigan. “When you own a house, what do you do? You have to fix it yourself.” You may find there are numerous “nickel and dime” things to account for that could add up to a significant chunk of money over time.

5. Not using professional help

Sure, it’s possible to go out and buy a home without the aid of a professional real estate agent. But think about how much time and stress a good agent can save you. For starters, Realtors have access to all the homes on the market through the multiple listing service, or MLS, plus all the ones that are under contract and have been sold. A specialist has time to sift through all of these listings, says Boss, and make the appointments to show you the houses, create comparative market analyses to determine proper pricing, and meet with necessary inspectors. Real estate agents also can help buyers traverse a taxing, 70-page legal contract. “I would want someone who is going to look out for my interests first and foremost,” says Boss. “Someone who knows the contracts, who has experience negotiating, and who can walk me through the entire process smoothly–step by step–and make sure I get the house that’s right for me.”

6. Picking your real estate agent and lender blindly

“One of the mistakes a lot of people make is finding a Realtor they aren’t comfortable with,” says Boss. Begin your search at the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents, a nonprofit that represents buyers. Or ask relatives, friends, neighbors, and coworkers for referrals.

First-time home buyers, Boss says, are generally more time-consuming than the average buyer and require more attention. A good real estate agent will be friendly and accommodating, show only homes that fit your parameters, and help you with strategies during the bidding process–but never pressure you into something you’re not comfortable with. “It’s important that the Realtor be experienced with first-time buyers, understand their wants and needs, and be able to connect with them well,” says Boss.

Similarly, the buyers should feel at ease with and have complete confidence in their mortgage lender, and they should fully discuss and understand their financing options with that lender. “Don’t apologize for asking questions,” says Vanderwell, who stresses the importance of knowing what you’re getting into. “There’s a pretty substantial chunk of people who are in really rough straits right now and would not have been had they done their homework.”

7. Thinking you’ll get everything on your “wish list”

Another mistake people make is being too close-minded while searching for their home, says Boss. He suggests sitting down with your real estate broker before searching for a home and creating a need/want list. Some of the items you might want to include as “must haves” or deal breakers are the towns you’d want to live in, square footage, or accessibility to transportation. The second part of the list would be things you don’t necessarily need but wish to have, such as a garage, new kitchen appliances, or an extra room for an office. “As you search for your home, you may realize there are certain parameters you really want or don’t want,” says Boss. “Understand that a certain amount of flexibility is essential.” Your aim is to be able to afford everything you need–as well as some items you want–all while staying within a long-term budget.

8. Not keeping your feelings in check before hiring a home inspector

You’ve already chosen the perfect paint color to match your living room set. But hold on: Before you start picking out accent pillows for your sofa, you need to bring in a home inspector to check the safety of your potential new home. Inspectors will evaluate the structure, construction, and mechanical systems of the home and will give you the approximate price of repairs that may be needed. They will examine everything from the electrical system, water heater, and HVAC system to the foundation and floors.

Buyers should find and hire their own inspector–independent of the real estate broker–to ensure there isn’t a conflict of interest. When you make your offer, make sure the seller is aware that your offer is contingent on the house passing inspection. You can also add a clause to the contract stating that the seller will pay up to a certain amount for any repairs required as a result of the inspection.

9. Not researching your neighborhood

You may be living in your dream home, but your neighborhood’s a nightmare. Or you may have children or are planning to have children in the near future, but you didn’t consider the quality of the school districts or parks in the vicinity. You should ask yourself a number of questions during your home search, such as “Are there good schools nearby?” and “Do I feel safe coming home at night?”

Boss suggests that if schools are an important factor, you should go check them out personally. Speak with the principals or the parents waiting on the steps outside to pick up their kids. To learn more about the community, open up the local newspaper, Boss says. You can find out about community events or even how good the local high school football team is. Today’s buyers can gather all sorts of neighborhood information from real estate blogs and websites like Zillow and Trulia. (U.S. News has a partnership with Trulia.) “It is the responsibility of the buyer to check crime reports, school options, churches, and shopping,” says Boss. “Remember, you can change your house, but you can’t change the neighborhood.”

10. Not considering the resale value of your home

You’ve just started the home-buying process. The prospect of selling a home hasn’t even crossed your mind. Besides, you’re thinking you might live in whatever home you buy forever. Yet life is full of surprises, whether it is a job transfer or having another child or taking care of an incapacitated relative.

When the time comes to put your house on the market, will your home be easy or difficult to sell? While you’re on the hunt, it’s a good idea to account for preferences of the typical home buyer. Just because you love to landscape or enjoy a bright-pink backsplash doesn’t mean a prospective buyer will. “How we make our plans initially has a big impact on our ability to adjust those plans and to deal with whatever comes our way,” says Vanderwell.

The housing market’s steep price slide appears to be slowing, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.

The median price of an existing single-family home in North Jersey and the New York metropolitan area was $434,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 5.5 percent from a year earlier, the NAR said. Nationally, prices declined 4.1 percent in that period, to a median $172,900.

Prices in North Jersey and the metro area are more than $100,000 below the peaks of around $540,000 reached in 2006 and 2007.

Sales of condos, co-ops and single-family homes in New Jersey rose 34 percent in the quarter from a year earlier, to 135,600 units. That’s still below the levels of the housing boom, when yearly sales topped 180,000 in 2004 and 2005.

Real estate broker Vikki CQ Healey CQ of Vikki Healey Properties in Maywood said she thought prices in the area were down a little more than the NAR data suggests — maybe 7 or 8 percent.

“We have such a preponderance of short sales and foreclosures in the market; those prices are really bring down the averages quite a bit,” she said.

But she agreed that the volume of sales was way up over late 2008, in part because of the depressed market activity after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

“Nothing was selling; it didn’t matter what the price was, what the interest rate was,” she said. “That was when the financial crisis hit, and we were paralyzed.”

http://njrereport.com/index.php/2010/02/12/new-jersey-q4-home-sales-up-prices-down/

Who Qualifies for the Extended Credit?

  • First-time home buyers who purchase homes between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010.
  • Current home owners purchasing a home between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010, who have used the home being sold or vacated as a principal residence for five consecutive years within the last eight.

To qualify as a “first-time home buyer” the purchaser or his/her spouse may not have owned a residence during the three years prior to the purchase.

Which Properties Are Eligible?

The Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit may be applied to primary residences, including: single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and co-ops.

How Much Is Available?

The maximum allowable credit for first-time home buyers is $8,000.

The maximum allowable credit for current homeowners is $6,500.

How is a Buyer’s Credit Amount Determined?

Each home buyer’s tax credit is determined by two additional factors:

  1. The price of the home.
  2. The buyer’s income.

Price

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, credit may only be awarded on homes purchased for $800,000 or less.

Buyer Income

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, which is effective on November 7, 2009,  single buyers with incomes up to $125,000 and married couples with incomes up to $225,000—may receive the maximum tax credit.

These income limits have changed from the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit limits. If you or your client purchased a home between January 1, 2009 and November 6, 2009, please see 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.

If the Buyer(s)’ Income Exceeds These Limits, Can He/She Still Get a Credit?

Yes, some buyers may still be eligible for the credit.

The credit decreases for buyers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000 for single buyers and between $225,000 and $245,000 for home buyers filing jointly. The amount of the tax credit decreases as his/her income approaches the maximum limit. Home buyers earning more than the maximum qualifying income—over $145,000 for singles and over $245,000 for couples are not eligible for the credit.

Can a Buyer Still Qualify If He/She Closes After April 30, 2010?

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, as long as a written binding contract to purchase is in effect on April 30, 2010, the purchaser will have until July 1, 2010 to close.

Will the Tax Credit Need to Be Repaid?

No. The buyer does not need to repay the tax credit, if he/she occupies the home for three years or more. However, if the property is sold during this three-year period, the full amount credit will be recouped on the sale.

http://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/2009_first_time_home_buyer_tax_credit

The good news: in the middle of a really tough economy, you land a job offer. The bad news: you have to explain to your 14-year-old that it means moving out of state. Whether it’s for a new career opportunity or to move when a current employer relocates its business, people who may not otherwise have considered relocating are facing the potential of moving boxes in their future. 

There are, however, steps you can take to make the transition more manageable: 

Do your homework as a family: Like most homework, this research will start with the Internet. City and state official websites are a good starting point to get a sense of the school system, recreation and services. Look to local bloggers to get the “voice” of a neighborhood, including city, or even neighborhood focused real estate blogs. Divide up the research among the family so everyone gets to be an expert.

Take time to talk about the unknown: With everything that goes into relocation, it is easy to turn family life into a never-ending series of “to do” lists. Find time to let your family talk out loud about the move. Some days it will seem like a great adventure, other days it’ll be daunting. Let your kids know that’s okay.

Find where your hobbies live: If a family member has a special hobby or sport, locate the best ways to connect with that passion as soon as you get to the new location- it’ll feel more like home when everyone is doing what they love.

Start gathering medical and school records: We’d like to think we live in a paperless world- that is, until we roll into the emergency room in a new town and can’t access key information. Start gathering data from your physician, dentist and school administrators earlier rather than later.

Tap into the professionals: Finding the right real estate agent and a good mover can make the difference between a straightforward- or a nightmare-relocation experience. Whether you’re looking to purchase a new home right away or are opting to rent an apartment or home while you familiarize yourself with the area, these professionals can provide both guidance and support during your relocation. Take time to check out reviews, get references from people you trust and then narrow down options to a short list. It’s worth the work to get these relationships right. 

“Having professionals on your side makes every difference during a move,” says Sharon Asher, chairman and founder, Relocation.com. “It’s understandable to want to do it all yourself, but people who are able to rely on strong professional services throughout the process come out of the experience saying the move was much more straightforward than if they had tried to handle it all on their own.”

It’s a fairly rare event, but now and then most of the important economic directional signs go positive, and this is one of those weeks.

Let’s start with pending home sales. After a big decline in November, they bounced back on purchase contracts signed in December and now point to an even stronger spring market.

Pending sales gained one percent nationally, 5.2 percent regionally in the Midwest, 2.3 percent in the Northeast, 2.2 percent in the South, but lost 3.8 percent in the West.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, which conducts the pending sales survey, said the swings from month to month are “masking the underlying trend (in housing), which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels.”

December’s pending sales contracts were 11 percent higher than December 2008’s.

Yun also predicts that that the two home purchase tax credits — the extended $8,000 credit and the new $6,500 credit — will have a significant impact on closed sales in the coming several months.

He forecasts that the two credits combined will stimulate 2.4 million sales in 2010, and most of that activity will be compressed into the first six months of the year.

The U.S. economy also is showing signs of unexpectedly vigorous growth. The GDP or gross domestic product — that’s the yardstick the government uses to gauge where the economy is headed — grew at a rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year — much faster than the consensus forecast by economists, which was in the four and a half percent range.

Manufacturing, obviously a key employment sector and important for real estate, also is showing signs of a faster rebound. Manufacturing orders were up four percent in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management, and hit the highest point since August of 2004.

Meanwhile, Frank Nothaft, chief economist for financing giant Freddie Mac, says he does not see a “double dip” in economic growth ahead, where the rebound loses steam mid-year after several strong quarters of growth.

In a discussion with Realty Times, Nothaft said that although mortgage rates are likely to rise to the mid or even upper five percent range, he sees a steady expansion of housing activity ahead for the rest of the year.

Mortgage rates last week stayed flat around 5 percent for 30 year fixed loans, and 4.3 percent for 15 year terms. Applications for mortgages to purchase homes took off big time, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association — they rose nearly 18 percent for the week.

By Kenneth R. Harney
February 9, 2010
Realty Times